Added reading required: Chapter 5 of Balancing Agility and Discipline

Sierra Mountainbikes(SMB) and its supply chain software developer, eServices, Inc., are using the risk-based approach in Chapter 5 of the Balancing Agility and Discipline book to determine which parts of the supply chain system described in EP-41 to develop with agile or plan-driven methods. Below is a summary of their findings with respect to the Environmental, Agile, and Plan-Driven sources of project risk. Use the findings to:

4a. (12 points) Plot the profile of the project on the Method Selection chart in Figure 2.2 of the BA&D book. Use a revised Dynamism scale: (30, 10, 3, 1, 0.3) instead of (50, 30, 10, 5, 1). Also, since a range of ratings may apply, show two pentagon's indicating the range of ratings.

4b. (18 points) Use the risk-based approach in Chapter 5 to determine the particular specializations of the generalized supply chain project strategy shown in Figure 5-4 with respect to:

4b1. (6 points) Particular software function development responsibilities for agile and plan-driven teams

4b2. (6 points) How best to involve and train Sierra Mountainbike software developers for participation in the agile and plan-driven parts of the project. They currently do not have much agile or supply chain applications experience, but will need such experience once the system is transitioned to them to operate and maintain

4b3. (6 points) Specific high-risk software to prototype or develop early in order to avoid expensive late rework.

SMB Supply Chain Risk Assessment Findings

Environmental Risk

Technology Risk. The project is taking a low risk approach to leading-edge technologies such as automated agents. However, there are some serious uncertainties about how well some of the leading COTS supply chain packages interoperate with each other or with SMB's existing manufacturing support software and its suppliers' and distributors' existing software. Using software connector technology such as the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) is likely to work for some combinations of COTS products, but just which combinations will best interoperate is unclear.

Coordination Risk. SMB has over 20 regular suppliers, but has arranged strategic alliances for the three top suppliers to participate in the supply chain system's definition and development. SMB has hundreds of retail outlets, but most of the order fulfillment is done through three main distributors, who have also agreed to participate. No serious coordination risks are foreseen, but some uncertainty areas remain with respect to emerging standards.

Complexity Risk The separate systems for manufacturing planning and control, enterprise resource management, advanced planning and scheduling, transportation management, and customer supplier relationship management make this a moderate-size system of systems, but other than COTS/legacy interoperability, there is little complexity risk.

Agile Risks

Scalability and Criticality. The software development team is planned to have a peak of 15 people, 10 from eServices and 5 SMB developers who will have primary post-delivery evolution responsibility. In addition, there are 4 past-time SMB stakeholder representatives for SMB manufacturing and business users, and for the suppliers and distributors, who also have 6 consulting-level representatives of the 6 organizations. The development criticality risk involves only discretionary funds, but given SMB's market share slippage, essential funds are at risk if the system works poorly.

YAGNI/Simple Design. Some of the sources of change are unappreciable and compatible with Simple Design, such as emergent user needs and new COTS products and releases. Some are fairly predictable and better handled with architectural commitments and design patterns, such as charging formats and algorithms for transaction processing.

Personnel Turnover. Both SMB's and eServices' turnover rates are quite low, at around 5%/year.

Agile Skills. The eServices staffs are quite experienced in agile methods, although 2 of the 10 personnel will be junior new hires. The 5 SMB developers have had a 2-day short course in XP, but no further experience. In terms of culture, eServices is about 70% thriving on chaos, while SMB is about 70% thriving on order.

Plan-Driven Risks

Rapid Change. The manufacturing, supplier, and distributor support packages will have a good deal (about 10%/month) of unpredictable change in adapting to lean/just-in-time operations. The fianc/ERP and transaction processing software will have some 1-2% month change, but will be mostly stable or predictable change.

Need for Rapid Results. The system will be developed incrementally to avoid multi-year delays, but the initial operational capability will be fielded in a year, with a beta-test version available in 9 months for the strategic partners. The schedule includes 3 months for planning, architecting, and early risk resolution.

Emergent Requirements. As indicated in Rapid Change, the main sources of risk due to emergent requirements are in the manufacturing, supplies, and distributor support area

Plan Driven Skills. 6 of the 8 experienced eServices people also have skills and experience in plan-driven development. All of the 6 SMB people have traditionally used plan-driven development. The eServices people on the project are roughly 30% levels 2 and 3 and 20% level 1B; the SMB people are roughly 20% levels 2 and 3 and 30% 1B.